So, there was this election last November. You might remember it or you might be trying to forget, but either way a new president was sworn in January 20th. Ever since the results were tallied, I’ve been inundated with a barrage of predictions for what the new administration means for the healthcare industry – in particular, for virtual care and telemedicine.
The one thing everyone can agree on is that with Trump in the White House, healthcare policy is going to change. So, what place does virtual care have in a Trump America?
No One Really Knows the Future
OK, it might seem kind of counterintuitive to say that after I just wrote about my forecasts for virtual care in 2017, but bear with me. Speculation about how lawmakers at the federal level approach healthcare policy can be well founded. It can be based on campaign promises (we all know how those go), party politics and previous voting records. But, our democracy is complex and unpredictable. And despite speaking Russian, I have no real insight into the policy direction the Trump administration will take with regards to healthcare.
Here’s What I do Know
While I can’t tell you precisely what legislative changes will come with the new Congress and President, I can tell you that there are macro-level trends in the healthcare industry that will continue to influence digital healthcare, telemedicine and virtual care, regardless of who’s in office. (Tweet)
And that’s where I can effectively make predictions. Like tiny snowballs starting downhill, the following trends have become avalanches in the healthcare mountainscape. Their momentum – more than federal policy – will be the major influencers of virtual care over the next several years.
The Transition to Value-Based Care Will Continue to Gain Momentum
Value-based reimbursement is here, and it’s here to stay. You can check out my post on Becker’s Hospital Review for a primer on value-based care and its impact on virtual care. Suffice to say, virtual care offers health systems a real means to cope with the changes the shift to value-based payment is producing.
Right now, value-based care is still gaining traction, but a number of factors make this shift inevitable. For one, healthcare costs are continuing to rise. Value-based reimbursement can help curtail those costs while supporting high quality care. A recently published study in JAMA found that using bundled payments for joint replacement decreased Medicare costs between 13% and 21% and produced fewer readmissions, emergency visits and prolonged hospital stays.
With insurers seeking to improve the bottom line and the move to high deductible health plans (HDHPs) and health savings accounts (HSAs) leaving patients paying more out-of-pocket, the transition to value-based care is only going forward.
Predicted Primary Care Physician Shortages and Patient Access Remain Challenges
Back in 2013, the Health Resources and Services Administration predicted a primary care physician shortage of more than 20,000 by 2020. Just this past year, the American Association of Medical Colleges issued a report projecting a shortfall of between 14,900 and 35,600 PCPs. This report went further and noted that if all barriers to care were removed, the U.S. would need an additional 96,000 doctors to meet patient needs – today.
All signs point to the population expanding relative to the number physicians available, meaning that improving patient access to care is only going to be more important going forward. I anticipate virtual care – with its increased clinical efficiency – is going to be a critical piece to solving these challenges.
Patient Demand for Virtual Care isn’t Going Anywhere
In our infographic, Virtual Care by the Numbers, we outline how patient demand for virtual care is impacting the industry. Some of the highlights include 76% of patients rating access over in-person care, and 62% of patients stating they’d be willing to replace an in-person visit with an online visit.
This demand is only going to increase as technology becomes more embedded in people’s lives.
People are Increasingly Spending Their Time Online
So, show of hands: Who has a Facebook account? Twitter? LinkedIn? Instagram? How about Netflix or Hulu? The world is more digital than it was even a few years ago. We shop, access entertainment, and even build and maintain our friendships and business relationships online. According to the Pew Research Center, 38% of all adults’ primary news sources are online – a number that goes up to 50% between the ages of 18 and 49.
This shift to a virtual world is only going to grow as more and more resources are available via digital channels. And, this holds true for healthcare, as well.
Virtual Care’s Place Going Forward
These trends may have started as a tiny shift in the snow cover, but they’re full-blown, unstoppable avalanches now. While I can’t predict policy, I feel confident that moving forward, virtual care has an important role in helping health systems and patients deliver and receive care as the landscape changes.